Happy 43 Singapore!!!

This year's national day theme is "Celebrating the Singapore Spirit". But what is the 'Singapore Spirit'?
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The Singapore Spirit encompasses the following five domains:

Unity. Singaporeans have a sense of community and are firmly rooted to the nation. Despite our diversity of ancestry and religions, our solidarity has allowed us to live in harmony during good times, and stay cohesive during times of adversity.

Determination. Singaporeans are resilient and have the will to succeed in every endeavour. Our ‘Can Do’ attitude, tenacity, discipline and perseverance in pursuit of our hopes and dreams, are at the root of our success as a nation.

Confidence. Singaporeans are prepared and optimistic. Our competitiveness and vitality has helped us to strive towards doing our best and forging ahead to build a brighter future for our next generation.

Dynamism. Singaporeans are creative and versatile. Our ability to accept change and adapt to new challenges allows us to excel in the global environment. It also cultivates the urge to explore new niche areas and build competitive advantages for continued successes.

Compassion. Singaporeans are gracious and caring. As we move ahead, we also reach out to those in need and collectively build a home for all.

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Can we do all these and more? As we compete globally in an 'flatter' world, people will get displaced from their jobs as companies seek out lower cost workers. We can only thrive by finding our niche. However, the very idea of niche would mean that a large part of the population will not participate in this growth in the niche sector (think bio-tech, nano-tech, wealth management services for Ultra HNWI (High Net Worth Individual).

Perhaps the best path to increase competitiveness is still via education. However, it is not simply the regurgitate and pass with flying colours type of education. But one that rewards risk taking and an ability to think across dicipline. For instance, if the Einstein quiz that was posted in July is given as a exam question, how many students would you think will question the question? How many bio students would also apply punctuated equilibrium to the study of technological innovation?

I also find it rather sad that many of us will think that "its a pity" that a uni grad goes into something like running a coffee stall in a hawker centre. I think that it will be a pity if a street smart risk taker is confined to a office cubicle pushing papers.

Increase our human capital, find something that we are passionate about and something good will hopefully come out of it.

In the following video, the world's richest man and second richest man share their views with some undergraduate students.
-The best piece of advice they've ever got
-The importance of habits
-Globalisation and its impact on small business

Blond girl strikes back

Read this in the newspaper today, i think it is really quite funny, so did a google on it.
I think there is something more to the dumb-blond facade to Paris Hilton. She just might run for president one day, and the White House will be re-named the Pink House.

I think her energy policy really makes much sense and that all those incessant bickering about which is the 'best energy policy' is just nonsense. Propose what's the best for the nation, and hope that rational and sound voters will like it.

“Hey America, I am Paris Hilton and I’m a celebrity too,” she said. “Only I’m not from the olden days and I am not promising change like that other guy. I’m just hot. But then that wrinkly white-haired guy used me in his campaign ad, which I guess means I’m running for president. And I want America to know that I’m like, totally ready to lead.”

source:http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/2008/08/05/paris-hilton-strikes-back-at-mccain-ad/


McCain's video


Hilton's video

See more funny videos at Funny or Die

Tap dancing to work

My internship ended last friday after 14 weeks at the tax department of PricewaterhouseCoopers.

I felt quite weird last friday as i felt almost nonchalant after the end of 3 months spent on the joy. I simply packed up, cleared all my stuff, seek clearance and went Esplanade lib to borrow Season 4 of Fraisers and later had dinner with my mom.

My job consists of essentially preparing tax return for corporate clients for submission to IRAS. (THE tax authority in Singapore). I learnt that my tax related education in SMU prepared me well for the knowledge and skill required. However, i was not suitable for the job due the sheer amount of meticulous work related filling in of forms and drafting letters to clients. Being a careless person means i have check and re-check my work a few times before handing it to my manager for checks. There will inadvertly have a few 'errors' here and there, e.g. extra spacing at the bottom of the page, indent of the para not consistent,etc. I spent less than of my time doing the tax, and the rest on preparing and rectifying such matters....its rather frustrating.

Some of the days while walking in the morning rush hours, i really feel like standing in the Raffles Place MRT underground passage and sing my lungs out - wonder how will others react. I guess most will just spare you a glance (if you are lucky) and carry on walking.

We are like ants that walks round and round an ant circle wondering why we are so exhuasted yet we can't stop cuz we've not found our pot of gold. Not realising that following the lost ant infront of us does not know where he's going either.

I think i need a job that engages me more intellectually and work with people i can admire. I really hope that when i work, i'll be like Buffett who said that he tap dances to work because it is so much fun. He also gave students this advice "You ought to have a good time all the time as you go along. If you say 'I'm taking this job - I don't really like this job but in three years it will lead to this,' forget it. Find one you like right now."


I want to tap dance to work!!!

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The march of death...circular mill.

View video of ants trapped in a circular mill

"Beebe (1921) described a circular mill he witnessed in Guyana. It measured 1200 feet in circumference and had a 2.5 hour circuit time per ant. The mill persisted for two days, "with ever increasing numbers of dead bodies littering the route as exhaustion took its toll, but eventually a few workers straggled from the trail thus breaking the cycle, and the raid marched off into the forest."

Army Ants Trapped by Their Evolutionary History
Republican Ants March in "Circular Mill" of Death
Source

Stop This Train

Just had a nice long chat with my dad.

A father's dream, a son's dream to be bigger than that dream...hope no one gets hurt.


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No I'm not color blind
I know the world is black and white
Try to keep an opened mind I just can't sleep on this tonight
Stop this train I want to get out and go home again
I can't take the speed it's moving in
I know I can
But honestly will someone stop this train

Don't know how else to say it, don't want to see my parents go
One generation's length away
From fighting life out on my own
Come on stop this train
I want to get off and go home again
I can't take the speed it's moving in
I know I can but honestly won't someone stop this train

So afraid of getting older
I'm only good at being young
So I play the numbers game to find away to say that life has just begun
Had a talk with my old man
Said help me understand
You sit down 68 you'll renegotiate
Don't stop this train
Don't follow it moves the place you're in
I don't think I could ever understand
I tried my hand
John, honestly we'll never stop this train

See once in a while when it's good
It'll feel like it should
When you're all still around
And you're still safe and sound
And you don't miss a thing so you cry when you're driving away in the dark.

Singing stop this train I want to get out and go home again
I can't take this speed it's moving in
I know I can
Cause now I see I'll never stop this train

Dead economist and intrinsic value

I'm reading an amazing book on economics, “New Ideas from Dead Economists”by Todd Buchholz. If only this is the prescribed A level economics textbook. It is useful, filled with insights and gives a great overview of different economic theories and life of economists. It is extremely useful to know in what context are these theories developed in as it allows us to understand the theories in the right context.

Alfred Marshall, who brought the idea of Supply and Demand, Marginal Utility and Cost to economics was one of the most influential economists of his time. Something that he wrote really make sense;
(1) Use mathematics as shorthand language, rather than as an engine of inquiry.
(2) Keep to them till you have done.
(3) Translate into English.
(4) Then illustrate by examples that are important in real life
(5) Burn the mathematics.
(6) If you can’t succeed in 4, burn 3. This I do often.

In today's world of spreadsheets and high computing power, we often over rely on the false certainty that numbers provide us. A common risk management tool is called Value at Risk (VaR). Essentially it seeks to quantify the maximum loss of capital with a given confidence interval. However, some problems such as the normal or non-normal distribution of the underlying securities and the ability of the model to sufficiently captures low probability high impact events plagues VaR. Essentially, it is a tool which works well under most condition but fails when you need it the most (in times of financial turmoil).

When it comes to the issue of value investing, the core concept is simply buying assets at a price less than the 'intrinsic value'. But what is intrinsic value?

Intrinsic value can be expressed in the following formula:

This expression is Step (2) of the second paragraph, but it holds no meaning to the normal person.

A great definition is given in Berkshire Hathaway's Owners Manual,

Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised.

Applying Marshall's principle of “burn the mathematics”, the above definition is at step 3, and illustration – step (4) is as follow;

You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, a college education. Think of the education’s cost as its “book value.” If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.

For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.

Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn’t get his money’s worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.

I hope that the intrinsic value of our education is worth way higher than the book value, if not we are not getting our money's worth.

If we can reasonably estimate the intrinsic value of an endeavor, be it a security or an expedition, and have to discipline to consistently pay a price less than that, we should do quite well. Maybe the above exposition may also help Chee Guan in deciding if he should give up his certain pay and employment in pursuit of an uncertain payoff from full time education.

The Lucifer Effect

Are we what we wear? where we are? who we are told to be?
or is there some innate unshakable being within us that truly defines us?

In 1971, Professor Philip Zimbard conducted a study in Stanford University where normal college students were randomly assigned to play the role of guard or inmate for two weeks in a simulated prison. The experiment quickly grew out of hand. "Prisoners" suffered and accepted sadistic and humiliating treatment from the "guards". The experiment had to be called off in 6 days instead of the original 2 weeks due to extreme distressed suffered by the "prisoners".

If perfectly fine and intelligent student volunteers can be conditioned into being victims and abusers, can you imagine what really happens to inmates and guards after being confined to the prison, and their respective positions year after year?

The video below show a good summary of the Stanford Prison Experiment . At 3:47 of the video, one of the most abused prisoners, #416, and the guard known as "John Wayne", who was one of the most abusive guards, confront each other in an "encounter session" two months later.



The professor has written a book called The Lucifer Effect. Hope i can get it from the library and read it before school starts.

The Joker and the Runaway Trolley

Batman - The Dark Knight is a great show. It is dark, sick and gloomy, yet it never fails to remind viewers that hope lingers just around corner.

The Joker was sick, damn sick. And Heath Ledger was brilliant. Watch the show and you’ll know experience first hand why such a ‘Hollywood film’ is winning critical acclaim.

The Joker said to Batman in the show “You complete me.” It freaky and freaking true. Without the Joker, Batman has no reason to exist as the attorney general and chief commissioner were doing a great job cracking down crimes. Without Batman, the Joker finds no worthy opponents in Gotham. They NEED each other. Both tormented, demented and damaged. To read more about Joker's love-hate relationship with Batman here.

I recall a Tom and Jerry episode where Jerry (yes the mouse) was chased out of the house. Tom went thru hell to save Jerry. And once Jerry is safe in the house, the never ending cat and mouse chase begins again. Tom loves it, Jerry loves it, and the viewers love it (at least Loh Wei does). Tom and Jerry’s existence is mutually dependent. For those who watched Matrix, you’ll recall the hate-hate relationship between Agent Smith and Neo…remember they neutralized each other?


The climax of the show (to me) was a thought experiment designed by the Joker. I shall not spoil the show for you. But it reminds me of an exercise I did in my Analytical Skill course in school and on a recent post by Zhengkai.

Thought experiments
Scenario 1
A runaway trolley car is hurtling down a track. In its path are five people who will definitely be killed unless you, a bystander, flip a switch which will divert it on to another track, where it will kill one person. Should you flip the switch?

Scenario 2
The runaway trolley car is hurtling down a track where it will kill five people. You are standing on a bridge above the track and, aware of the imminent disaster, you decide to jump on the track to block the trolley car. Although you will die, the five people will be saved.
Just before your leap, you realise that you are too light to stop the trolley. Next to you, a fat man is standing on the very edge of the bridge. He would certainly block the trolley, although he would undoubtedly die from the impact. A small nudge and he would fall right onto the track below. No one would ever know. Should you push him?

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4954856.stm

There are many variations to the above thought experiment, but most people will feel more comfortable flipping the switch than pushing the man down. Why? The action involved in simply a flick of the finger, and the outcome is the same, 5 lives saved, 1 live sacrificed?

No answers, just interesting to think about.