Monday, September 15, 2008

Junkie...junk

Lehman Brothers has filed for bankrupcy protection.
The market has opened in New York.
The market value of LEH's equity has evapourated.
Whose next? Wachovia Corporation? Washington Mutual?
Or AIG or Citigroup?

Let us be reminded of the following quotes:
"You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out — and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight.”
~ Berkshire Hathaway 2007 Shareholders letter


Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength – for the sake of our owners, creditors, policyholders and employees. We try to be alert to any sort of megacatastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly apprehensive about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are
potentially lethal.

~ Berkshire Hathaway 2002 Shareholders letter

In each action we must look beyond the action at our past, present, and future state, and at others whom it affects, and see the relations of all those things. And then we shall be very cautious.
~ Blaise Pascal

I MUST LEARN!

Banking Junkie

Last Thursday I did some impulsive buying on Lehman Brothers (LEH) at about $4 per share. 200 bucks was as stake. I FULLY ACKNOWLEDGE that it was GAMBLING, not investing.

Let’s go back to the definition of INVESTING:
An investment operation is one which upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.

Buying LEH does NOT promise safety of principle as there is very high possible risk of permanent capital loss. However, it does provide high potential return should LEH manage to survive this financial tsunami as it is selling at potentially 20 to 30 percent of breakup value. Lastly, I did no ‘through analysis’ to arrive at the purchase decision.

I sat in Prof Andrew Lee’s Corporate Reporting class today and he gave a great overview of sources of liquidity and why LEH exhausted most of its sources liquidity.

Some sources of liquidity?
1) Cash on hand
2) Sell assets (real estates, business unit, loans portfolio, etc)
3) Raise debt
4) Raise equity
5) Sell out of better financed companies

Looking at LEH, it tried to sell its assets, but in this turbulent market, there are few buyers. Debt financing for LEH is almost impossible as the cost of debt is prohibitively high due to perceived risk of the bank. Furthermore, there could be NO buyers should the company try to sell either debt or equity. On top of that, even if there ARE buyers, due to the depressed share price, the dilutive effect on existing shareholder essentially wipe out current shareholder’s stake.

Tonight we’ll probably know more about the near term future for Lehman Brothers.

In an email, Yado sent me the following message “Now from countrywide u have ml too lol” 

The interesting turn of events is the announced purchase of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America. It is ironical that I got my BAC shares via my doomed purchase of CountrywideFinancial. And now BoA is getting Merrill Lynch on the cheap. Observing evolution of financial landscape via my brokerage account is indeed interesting :)

USA Today provides quite a balanced and succinct story of the series of financial event over the past month here.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Where have all the flowers gone?

"Where Have All the Flowers Gone" is a beautiful written by Pete Seeger song. I especially love the first verse

Where have all the flowers gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the flowers gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the flowers gone?
Girls have picked them every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?



In the financial market, it seems that all the bulls have gone home and there's little place to hide in the waves of deleveraging we are going under. Fannie and Freddie in essence have been nationalised, Lehman posted over $3.9bn in Q3 loss and dark clouds seem to loom over every corner of the market.

In Bill Gross's latest Investment Outlook, he discussed the concept of "deleveraging" in great details. I think it is a great read for anyone who's cares about the impact and process of the financial turmoil the world is going through and will go through.

What Happens During Delevering
1. Risk spreads, liquidity spreads, volatility, term premiums – they all go up.


2. Delevering slows/stops when assets have been liquidated and/or sufficient capital has been raised to produce an equilibrium.

3. The raising of sufficient capital now depends on the entrance of new balance sheets. Absent that, prices of almost all assets will go down.

Remember the multiplier effect we learnt in A level economics? Roughly speaking, a small increase in any factor of AD (C + I + G + X) will result in large effect on the economy. The deleveraging process is like a negative multiplier effect as the negative impact of of asset worth feeds into other economic agent...and the process goes on and on.

Buffett has also been quoted that the pain of this correction will be "...will be deeper and last longer than many think." However, he also said that "If the world were falling apart I'd still invest in companies,". Some financial commentator came up with a nice analogy on Buffett's position on the state of the economy, instead of having a glass half full vs. glass half empty postition, he thinks that that its that "glass is cracked".
(for the Buffett-phile out there, this is an amazing site Warren Buffett Watch)

I think in general we should be long term optimist. It will do us great psychological damange to think that the world as we know it is going to end soon. Furthermore in the long run, it is amazing how human beings have been able to find new ways to inflict damange on ourselves, yet we're super resilient in coming back and surviving most of the self-inflicted wounds (and then find yet another way to self destruct).

When will we ever learn?
When will we ever learn?

I just might be a cocked eyed optimist.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

To know the future......Return to the past

The trailer looks great. Young Tom Riddle freaks me out.
Can't wait for the show!

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Gossip Girl and Efficient Market


Season 2 of Gossip Girl is BACK. Ok. i know you think i'm probably crazy. But i seriously think that the anology of Gossip Girl to the Semi-Strong Form of Efficient Market Hyphothesis (EMH) is pretty solid.

Wonder who will read this post?!?, cuz pple i know who cares for Gossip Girls cares not for EMH, and vice versa, heehee :)

Semi-Strong Form of EMH is simply the idea that all public information is immediately known by all market participants and prices will INSTANTANEOUSLY adjust to the new info (ie that you can't make profit from publicly available information).

Isn't that just like in Gossip Girl, where information is instantly available online and everyone in their little private school would know everyone's business. Those who 'know' doesn't have an edge, but those who 'don't know', lose out. Think poor Dan Humphrey who's always the last to know as he's rarely on Gossip Girl website. Btw, Hump-phrey is a pretty good name for the character, people are always free riding off him. And i'm pretty sure Serena will be getting some other phrey hump somewhere soon.

However, Blair is different, knowing that the market is pretty efficient, she does one of two things, (i) she uses information in a superior manner, (ii) she digs deeper than the rest to get access to private (sometimes too private) information.

Hey! that's exactly what great investors do! People like Martin Whitman said that the information that he used are public information, he simply used them in a superior way. Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corporation, which offerred to reinsure the portfolio of several existing financial guarantors is another creature which has been collecting information on the industry for over 20 years. And now when others and facing downgrade or losing access to capital market, they are one of the few which have the ability and capacity to underwrite huge volume of insurance for municipal bonds. Read this speech by Ajit Jain to understand Berkshire's rationale to enter into this market.
Be prepared, or be bitten in the ass.



"Ain't karma a bitch?..................We know Blair Waldorf is."
~Gossip Girl

Monday, September 1, 2008

Aye E.y.E


I had fun over the weekend being part of the E.y.E Investment Bootcamp as a faci. I'm really glad that this year's turnup was very good and that the participants enjoyed the games designed and excecuted flawlessly by the awesome team that runs the camp!


It is great to see a bunch of committed people having fun while working effectively with each other. And at the end of the day, celebrating each other's success.



--------------------


We had a great speaker on the second day of the camp who talked about asset allocation strategy. She's awesome! I share her anger at financial products that is introduced irresponsibly to the lay person. She talked about different forms of Structured Products that is being introduced in banks which is being touted as a Fixed Deposit alternative. However, it is NOT!


Some examples of structured products




I'll try to understand what the speaker has said and will try to blog about the potential risks and return soon.

Meanwhile, read this great introduction to investing written by Xin Hong for the first time investor( and yah, not forgetting to shamelessly plug E.y.E club here. It written for our members.) Its an awesome guide and reads like a storybook.


"By periodically investing in an index fund, for example, the know-nothing investor can actually out-perform most investment professionals. Paradoxically, when "dumb" money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb."

Warren E Buffett ~ 1993 Chairman's letter


Thursday, August 28, 2008

Be educated in accounting

Warning: Pure accounting gibberish

Today i had an eye opening experience during my Accounting Theory (AT) class. To me AT feels like a combi of history, literature and philosophy of accounting. I'm still rather confused over the course, so whatever i say may be totally off.

Prof JJ tried to get us to SEE how the economic/financial exchanges (transactions- the inputs) gets 'transformed' into behind financial statements (the output) via accounting standards (e.g. GAAP). Without understanding this transformation, all attempts at understanding the output (the FS) is rather pointless.

He also tried to free us from our "accounting diapers" days when we learnt that Assets = Liab + Equities. Whereby the reality is simply an entity gives up something, in exchange for something. Thus a Debit entry is equivalant to Credit entry. Note, its not EQUAL, but equivalant. Haha. Only a fool would exchage for something that is EXACTLY the same.

Futhermore, i also get to see that our financial statements are prepared primarily for the owners of capital, be it debt or equity. And a primary emphasis has been placed on equity owners. Thus we always have Net Profit as the last line on our Income Statement. What more, Net profit is seen as a EXPENSE to the entity. Has the prof committed heresy in accounting? However upon further thinking, it does seem like net profit is simply like a form of undistributed future payment to the equity owners in exchage for the services of his capital. In this sense, isn't net profit somewhat like interest expense. And if interest expense is an EXPENSE, then isn't net profit an EXPENSE to the entity too?

The prof even managed to link up Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle with accounting. The uncertainty priciple states that we can either measure the momentum or position of particle, but never both with 100% precision. Prof suggested that we can see the Income statement as momentum and b/s as position. We can't measure both with 100% precision.

Moreover, the reason we can 'close off'' the income statement to balance sheet at the end of the accounting period is that we added artificial feature to the concept. Net income is actually Net income per year, we multiply Net income/year with 1 year to "make" net income part of retained earnings....very interesting concept, but i never thought of it that way.

I was saddened when i hear a girl commented that Prof GAN (my accouting 101 prof) powerpoint slides was incomprehensible, thus she COULDN'T do well in financial accounting. What nonsense! The professor's slides is meant to facilitate his in class teachings, not meant as a mugging guide. University students should know better than to rely only on 'prof's slides. But to supplement it with textbook and other resources readings, in class discussion and discussion with friends. It is OUR responsibility to be educated. Our profs are there to facilitate our learnings, not to spoonfeed us.

Seriously, GROW UP.