Regression

I couldn't squeeze into my loosest pair of pants. Tailored some new ones. The tailor was nice enough to make another 0.5 inch allowance and he said "做工了一定会再胖"。

This is getting out of hand. So guess what, i sat right down in front of an excel spreadsheet and started keying in weekly data I've collected on my weight and waist length. (yeah, i guess sitting down more isn't going to help one bit...hahaha...)

Anyway, this not-very-robust data was collected usually on a Sunday morning and 32 data points were collected over a 50 weeks period. The differences (50 vs 32) are due to laziness in some weeks and also I'm not crazy (enough) to bring measuring tape and scale on my trips overseas.

Below is a scatter-plot of weight (x-axis) vs. waistlength (y-axis)

What interests me most was that under regression analysis, the R-squared is only 0.191, which loosely translate to "19.2% of waist length variation can be explained by weight"...I've never been good at stats, so this is my understanding. haha. So loosing weight does not necessarily mean I'll start fitting into my old pants?!?

Contrary to my previous belief, I do not put on tremendous amount of weight during Christmas, but during Chinese New Year, my increase in weight is staggering.

So armed with this two piece of data...i dunno what to do next...maybe will start getting a chartist to find where my weight will lend next. Wait, does past weight drives future weight? mmm...or is it random event? Let me do more multi-factor analysis first.

OR...Maybe I should write a book combining random walk theory and weight management. Then launch some self-help/self-loathe group and run huge seminar to tell people, IT IS OK TO GAIN EXCESS WEIGHT, JUST THINK AND YOUR FATS WILL ALL MELT OFF. WILL IT OFF!!! IF YOU ARE NOT LOSING WEIGHT, IT IS BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT THINKING HARD ENOUGH. Gosh, piece of bull.

Ok, enough thinking, I should start doing something about it. But wait, let me read up on it first, there just could be a holy grail tucked away in some books, and with a 'swish and flick', it will all go away.

寡欲

吉凶祸福有来由，但要深知不要忧。
只见火光烧润屋，不闻风浪覆虚舟。
名为公器无多取，利是身灾合少求。
虽异匏瓜难不食，大都食足早宜休。

~白居易，感兴二首

越是忙，越是觉得空虚。不易从工作中得到使命感。尤其是不需要糊口，家也不需要自己负担，那薪水的实质意义就更渺小了。看着身旁的人忙忙碌碌，青春流逝了，不仅感到心寒。每天赶不同的deadline...人不早死才怪呢。

今天看到薪水比我大上五到十倍的人为着半给月华红与另外送的几千块而那么兴奋，让我觉得莫名其妙。但午餐时，同事看我为了一杯好茶而那么开心，让他们也摸不着脑袋。哈哈。

将来几年就作艘虚舟，亦浮亦晃，不沉就好...沉了就难救了。

Dementors, Fireworks and Ring of Fire

Have you met one of those people that sucks life and energy out of you?

I think these people are just like the Dementors in Harry Potter. These souless hopeless creatures have nothing to give and feed on other people happiness.

For those of you who don't know what Dementors are, watch this:

I generally run far away from them cuz i've yet to master a truly powerful Patronus Charm. But what if your work place is filled with souless creatures? I've so far only been forced to be around one such person for about 2 years, so whenever i'm near him, i'll bring an extra dose of happiness and sunshine to wield off the chill.

The scary thing is hopeless people attracts other hopeless people (not that they are hopeless, just that they have nothing that they look forward to in life), they gossip about others and bitch about how sucky their life is. The ranting attract more ranting, and soon they gather in size. Once a critical mass is gathered, a black hole effect appears. The culture of the organisation becomes poisonous and kills off stuff like creativity and enthusiasm.

Other than run, my only solution is that we must all be vigilant in preventing them into entering the organisation. Or we should brainwash them with this Katy Perry song ala Clockwork Orange style (warning,super disturbing vid on the clockwork orange treatment).

May we all find our own true Ring of Fire, which Gandalf wore in Lord of the Rings (passed to him by Círdan in the Third Age), "for thy labours and thy cares will be heavy, but in all it will support thee and defend thee from weariness. For this is the Ring of Fire, and herewith, maybe, thou shalt rekindle hearts to the valour of old in a world that grows chill".

a not so fun day

I actually enjoy doing different parts of my current work, doing cash recon and estimating depreciating expense is quite enjoyable.

Finished with my part of the work and helping senior with vouching...not so fun. My eczema fingers cracked after touching 12 months worth of sales invoices....not to mention a backache after plouging through papers for a day.

BUT, as i've promised to myself, i shall OPEN my eyes when doing the most mundane of jobs...today i learnt the true cost of a pack of a certain product, and a whole host of expense one must incur to start up a new office!

sadly i've forgotten what i've learnt in AFA on forex! Shall go revise on it this week, if not 对不起 prof. haha.

BTW....Buffett and his $200bn blunder...unheard of? Read on...

Halo halo halo / Fees & pricing

On Halo

Nope, this is not about the Beyonce song, this is about a book that i recently read. It is called "The Halo Effect", click on the link for a summary of the main points. Essentially, the Halo effect is the effect that people tend to project the perception of one trait on all the other traits. For instance, if I think that a person is really really good at singing, I'll tend to rate his ability for presentation or something as unrelated as cooking, as higher than average (even if real objective performance measurement will disprove it).

I think we rely on this heuristic a little too much on daily life. have you met those parents who obviously favor one child over another? Whatever the favored child does is cute/funny/brilliant; whatever the other child does is dull/gross/stupid even if they are doing exactly the same thing...like singing in the train....hahaha...(who does that? definitely not me...)

This works in hand with Cialdini's Liking Principle to create huge biases effects on the way we view performance and allocating attributes to someone.

The following video is a summary of Cialdini's 6 points of influence.

On Incentives, Fees, Pricing, Competitive Pressure

A cost plus model is really a very weird model to pricing, yet this is used frequently in many industries. For instance, if my cost is 100 and I'd like to make a 50% markup, my selling price will be 150. Many in the professional line of business does a cost plus concept, e.g. if a lawyer bill by the hour, he is essentially saying my one hour costs X amount and you shall pay me X+y%.

However, this creates perverse incentives for people to inflate their costs. If i bill by the hour, do you think i'll resolve issues as quickly as possible or as slowly as possible?

A cost plus is also bad for the service provider for he will not be attentive to upward cost pressure and downward pricing pressure if a competitor can offer the same thing for a lesser fee. In a cost plus world, there could be a disconnect between what the buyer thinks the value is and what the seller wants to charge. In a fast growing world where there are loads unmet needs, cost-plus pricing provider may easily pass on costs to buyers.

For the accounting profession, as labor and harmonisation of accounting standards be more common, the numbers of qualified supplier of accounting related service has increased. The market demand is a slow growing one. And intensity of competition within the existing players has always been high. The means lower margins for low value added projects or engagements that the client does not value.

Possible solutions to maintain high profits include employing greater leverage (ie higher junior to senior staff mix), hiring people with lower salary and invest in them to bring them up to par to international standards, provide higher value added jobs (e.g. audit + tax computation as lower margin , process re-engineering, risk management, HR & IT solutions support as value added services).

I think it will be hilarious for any professional service firm that seeks to sell "best in class" solutions to clients to think that they can ignore the prevailing wind of market forces and not practice what it preaches.

诫子书

Over the past month, managed to catch up with some old friends and I'm really impressed with their achievements. One friend chose a low paying - high job satisfaction job at ACRES, an animal welfare organisation, and another is starting a social entrepreneurship program in the Philippines. I salute their selflessness and devotion in improving the welfare of others.

Many has started work, yet i felt that there's only 2 engineer friends who are happy at what they are doing. Others enjoy the work itself, but has less than collegial colleagues. Yet others have boring unsatisfactory job but great company at work. And those who are happy at work felt a little underpaid. haha, perhaps labour market is pretty efficient. or humans just prefer to be unhappy.

在和朋友们的谈话中，我不时地也会自我怀疑是否在事业上做了对的选择。若是说在相比之下没一丝嫉妒他人在薪酬上和所谓prestige的悬殊，那时骗人的。但双眼睁着选择了这行，还需要有不凡的意志力才可不被他人的行为言语左右。

...自欺，欺人，被人欺...

看了一出《金锁记》，感触良多。又有多少人逃得出这金锁与情锁的枷锁呢？或需只求一日自明明人吧。

诸葛亮写给儿子的《誡子書》反复重读，从中学习，并身体力行。以他人的不是引以为鉴，而不沦落为《金锁记》中那‘怨妇’的悲惨结局。

夫君子之行，静以修身，俭以养德。非淡泊无以明志，非宁静无以致远。夫学须静也，才须学也，非学无以广才，非志无以成学。淫慢则不能励精，险躁则不能治性。年与时驰，意与日去，遂成枯落，多不接世，悲守穷庐，将复何及！


譯文：德才兼備人的品行，是依靠內心安靜精力集中來修養身心的，是依靠儉樸的作風來培養品德的。不看輕世俗的名利，就不能明確自己的志向，不是身心寧靜就不能實現遠大的理想。學習必須專心致志，增長才幹必須刻苦學習。不努力學習就不能增長才智，不明確志向就不能在學習上獲得成就。追求過度享樂和怠惰散漫就不能振奮精神，輕浮暴躁就不能陶冶性情。年華隨着光陰流逝，意志隨着歲月消磨，最後就像枯枝敗葉那樣，（成了無所作為的人）對社會沒有任何用處，（到那時，）守在自家的狹小天地里，悲傷嘆息，還有什麼用呢？

(http://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/%E8%AA%A1%E5%AD%90%E6%9B%B8)

David Maister on Professionalism

David Maister changed the way I think about professionalism, the accounting profession and how a manager/employee/partner should manage oneself and others at work.

Perspective on Careers
1. The cold, hard, truth is that you’ve got to look after yourself.
2. You can’t assume that anyone is really looking out for your best interests (in spite of what they may say.)
3. There may be a human resources department in your firm, managers, coaches and a mentoring system. But don’t get fooled. Your career is up to you and you alone.
4. No one will tell you what experience you should be obtaining, let alone help you get it.
5. If you want a specific experience, ask for it.
6. Better yet, just go grab it.
7. Do not expect that you will be promoted because you deserve it - it is unlikely that anyone is really keeping track.
8. If you want to be promoted, ask to be promoted.
9. Generally, things do not come to those who do not ask for them.
10. None of this means you should be rude, disrespectful to others, or fail to be a team player. It just means don’t be naïve.
11. In spite of what they may say, it’s up to you. You’re on your own, kid.
12. Manage your own career. No one else will.

Anyone disagree that this is both the right philosophy to have and the cold, hard reality?

source: http://davidmaister.com/blog/329/Perspective-on-Careers

We always wonder which career path should we embark on. But this is an issue that confronts most people. See how Maister himself started his career as a Statistician and ended up as one of the most important consultants to professional firms. Read on.

Finally going start work in slightly more than a week's time. Will see how I score on my personal scorecard over the next few years.