Heuristic

We live in a complex world and we are forced to make thousands of decisions in a day. How we largely avoid banging into each other while walking on the street is a pretty amazing decision making process. Its a little waltz that we do intuitively, by processing thousands of signals and implement the appropriate action - speed, facial expression, level of congestion, weather,etc.

To simplify our decision making process, we often rely on heuristic to make decision. Heuristic, or 'rule of thumb' allow us to survive in this world without over taxing our brain.

An abuse of heuristic may lead to dire consequences. In behavioral finance, we learn that heuristics such as anchoring or sample size bias can lead to sub-optimal decisions. However, when heuristics are used in the decision making for doctors, misuse could lead to wrong treatment or possibly death.

Reading a fascinating book called "How Doctors Think" by Jerome Groopman. Amazing book. It brings you through how doctors make decisions, what are the conditions that wrong decisions are made, and how PATIENTS and DOCTORS can work together to reduce misdiagnosis. I don't understand the medical terms in the book at all, so i shall not attempt to use it. haha.

Imagine you see a dirty looking old man reeking with smell of liquour sent into the ER with bloated limbs, you'll first assume there's something wrong with his liver, when in fact there could be something wrong with some other organs (too).

Another common problem is the one that is dealt with by jie chao on his post on bayesian analysis. Failure to adjust for base rate could lead to unnecessary treatments despite the very high accuracy of the test itself.

Doctors who work with mental checklist can prevent some of these heuristics. But doctors are human too, they have their own preference and incentives. As patients, we should look out for these human fallibility and be alert to point these out to the doctors if we suspect that it has occurred.

Amazing little book. It just might save my life one day...


--------------------------------------------------------------

Daniel's parents are two of the kindest people that i've met. People who offer their help even when none was asked warm our hearts. I'll forever be grateful for their kind words. Hope Daniel recovers soon. Haiz, only he will air my fabricated dirty laundry in front of his family. Seriously, if he doesn't want to be in finance, he can be a really successful writer with his vivid imaginations. hahah.