Friday, August 6, 2010

Inflation and Unemployment

It has been almost 2 months since I last blogged. Friends asked me what am I doing since I don’t start work till sept, and my answer has been always, Eat, Sleep, Read.

We all know that learnt unemployment and inflation is bad, but until we experience it ourselves, it is just ‘textbook’ talk. Since the day I was born, inflation has been benign and unemployment in Singapore was generally low. When I was in Argentina, I asked my guide what was it like during the Peso crises and general devaluation of peso (and inflation in local dollars). He said that many people lost their savings and affected their livelihood.

For instance, you could be working in Argentina collecting your pay in USD. Say you’ve saved $1,000 USD, which also translate to 1000 (Argentinean dollars) ARD before the devaluation. During the period of crises, bank will only allow you to withdraw in ARD even though you’ve deposited USD!!! If you insist on withdrawing in USD, they’ll convert it at the current (devalued) exchange rate and you’ll lose up to 30% of savings in a month! Also the super rich were withdrawing USD from local banks and depositing them in US banks, so local banks ran out of USD… bank run began and queues formed for days outside banks, ATMs got trashed, and many Argentineans who were studying overseas has to go back to Argentina because they can no longer afford expenses in USD.

Unemployement in South America is not low. From CIA Fact Book: Peru 8.1% Argentina - 8.7%, Chile – 9.6%, and official figures are probably under-reported. Through observation, you have a huge part of city life involved in daily protests on the streets. A very unproductive activity, all the squabbling yet nothing gets resolved. Also, when a person is unemployed and poor, he has got nothing to lose and no future to look forward to, law and order will not prevail. Anarchy follows. Economic destruction will tear apart a country's social fabric.

Percentage of population under poverty line: 20% (Chile), 44.5% (Peru) and 14.9% (Argentina). Looking at the young beggars on the streets who have their young ones strapped to their back, I can only see the vicious cycle of poverty repeating itself over the next generation. Very sad.

How fortunate that we are in Singapore! Unemployment 3.8%, Percentage of population under poverty line: Not Applicable!!!

Of course all statistic lies. At least these are not chronic problems in Singapore.

Me being currently fully unemployed, I see the risks that unemployment brings: you can sleep as late as you want, stay at home whole day in the clothes you wake up in, eat and watch Scrubs and True Blood (weird combi in know!) and then sleep as late as you want again. Soon, your brain goes numb, your body goes flabby and soon I’ll be like the crazy mom in the movie Precious. Ewww……So now I put in extra extra effort to stay industrious.

Benjamin Franklin on laziness:
1. Sloth, like rust, consumes faster than labor wears, while the used key is always bright
2. Dost thou love life, then do not squander time, for that’s the stuff life is made of
3. Lost time is never found again
4. He that riseth late, must trot all day, and shall scarce overtake his business at night
5. Drive thy business, let not that drive thee
6. Industry need not wish
7. He that lives upon hope will die fasting
8. There are no gains, without pains
9. Plough deep, while sluggards sleep, and you shall have corn to sell and to keep
10. One today is worth two tomorrows
11. Have you somewhat to do tomorrow, do it today
12. Be ashamed to catch yourself idle
13. Let not the sun look down and say, inglorious here he lies

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