Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Process vs. Outcome

Does good outcome always follow good process? Should we be focused on outcome or process, ie outcome/result driven or process driven?

To me i believe that we should always focus on the process and let the outcome take care of itself...that is if the process is truly good. Gained some new insights on process, outcome and probabilities from the Bob Rubin video interview as recommended by Xin Hong (visit xinhong's blog for a summary of the interview & link to the video).

Rubin's ideas is succintly presented by Michael Mauboussin in this book "More than you know".
In essence,
1. The only certainty is that there is no certainty
2. Decisions are a matter of weighing probabilities
3. Despite uncertainty, we must act
4. Judge decisions not only on results, but also on how they were made

On point four, the author also pointed us to the research of Jay Russo and Paul Schoemaker, who classified process and outcome in a simple 2 by 2 matrix,
1. Good Process + Good Outcome = Deserved Success
2. Good Process + Bad Outcome = Bad Break
3. Bad Process + Good Outcome = Dumb Luck
4. Bad Process + Bad Outcome = Poetic Justice

I LOVE this classification, for it allows me to evaluate my decision (usually after the outcome has occured) and see which category this event falls into.
For instance, I have no idea how to do well in one of my modules (CAT), but due to pple around me that did the whole project for me (Daniel, Damien, Aeron with inputs from Andrew), i got a good grade, so its considered a pure "DUMB LUCK" case.

However, it is also possible to decieve ourselves that we are just plain unlucky if Bad Outcome keeps occuring because the bad outcome could very well stem from our bad process.

Phillip Fisher said that its ok that a company makes loss in a few quater if they are building the company for the long term (e.g. High marketing expense to penetrate market), but if after a few years, the company is still bleeding, there's something wrong with the company. NO long term profits are made from series of short term loss.

End this with a quote from Bob Rubin, "It’s not that results don’t matter. They do. But judging solely on results is a serious deterrent to taking risks that may be necessary to making the right decision. Simply put, the way decisions are evaluated affects the way decisions are made."

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Btw, Daniel just watched Avenue Q in London, and sent me this message at 4 in the morning, "Avenue Q is a fucking riot!". Haha, probably means that he's blown away by the show.
Can't wait to watch it in November when it comes to Singapore. Hope its not some watered down version.

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