Why zebras don't get ulcers?

I must first admit that i don't understand more than half the book, and that i cheated and skimmed through certain chapters that don't interest me yet.

However, given the subject nature - the science of stress and its impact on our well being, it is a reader friendly and very interesting book. I don't think i can introduce this book as well as Amazon.com Review, so i shall lift their text and show it here.

Amazon.com Review
Why don't zebras get ulcers--or heart disease, diabetes and other chronic diseases--when people do? In a fascinating look at the science of stress, biologist Robert Sapolsky presents an intriguing case, that people develop such diseases partly because our bodies aren't designed for the constant stresses of a modern-day life--like sitting in daily traffic jams or growing up in poverty. Rather, they seem more built for the kind of short-term stress faced by a zebra--like outrunning a lion.
With wit, graceful writing, and a sprinkling of Far Side cartoons, Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers makes understanding the science of stress an adventure in discovery. "This book is a primer about stress, stress-related disease, and the mechanisms of coping with stress. How is it that our bodies can adapt to some stressful emergencies, while other ones make us sick? Why are some of us especially vulnerable to stress-related diseases, and what does that have to do with our personalities?"

Sapolsky, a Stanford University neuroscientist, explores stress's role in heart disease, diabetes, growth retardation, memory loss, and autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis. He cites tantalizing studies of hyenas, baboons, and rodents, as well as of people of different cultures, to vividly make his points. And Sapolsky concludes with a hopeful chapter, titled "Managing Stress." Although he doesn't subscribe to the school of thought that hope cures all disease, Sapolsky highlights the studies that suggest we do have some control over stress-related ailments, based on how we perceive the stress and the kinds of social support we have.

Read this book and you will find out more about why many of us fall sick around exam periods, or whether claims we often hear regarding stress and its association and stomach ulcers or cancers are valid. I'm now more aware of what my body is going through when i am stressed, and will now actively monitor myself to take note of the danger signs and try to lower my glucocorticoids level.

Here's a short story regarding one of my favorite board games that is in the footnotes of the book. Prof JJ has taught us well to learn to appreciate footnotes, that's where the juicy stuff is...

I listened to a tape of this sermon, called "Back in the Box," by Rev John Ortberg. It concerns an incident from his youth. His grandmother, saintly, kind, nurturant, also happened to be a viciously competitive and skillful Monopoly player, and his summer visists to her were littered with his defeats at the game. he described one year where he practiced like mad, honed his Machiavellian instinct, developed a ruthless jugular-gripping style, and finally mopped up the board with her. After which, his grandmother rose and calmly put the pieces away.

"You know," she said offhandedly, "this is a great game, but when it is all over with, the pieces just go back in the box." Amass your property, your hotels...[the sermon takes off from there]...your wealth, your accomplishments, your awards, your whatever, and eventually it will all be over with and those pieces go back in the box. And all you are left with is how you lived your life.

Life is too beautiful and short to be spent chasing after things that at the end of the day means nothing. Treasure those around us. Life is fragile, we have to nourish it. It will finally mean something someday. 

Twilight

Dragged Ian and Ivan to watch Twilight today. To me it is a coma-inducing show.

At times it feels like watching 7th Heaven on a big screen. The story is slow and some dialogues are just so corny and laughable. Haha. Its romantic scenes are almost comedic to me. The funniest thing is that there are scenes where some girls in the cinema giggled when the male lead...shucks i still dunno his name...looks at the female lead. I dunno what's so funny !#$%^! Haiz, must be generation gap. Haha.

I think my story line that the male lead who played Cedric in Harry Potter 4 is revived as a vampire in twilight is one that can be pursued. So maybe Hermione can do a cameo and we'll have a love triangle. Or Dumbledore can save Cedric (ya the vampire) from some bloodthirsty werewolf in the second part of the series....mmm....maybe Chris Weitz who is slated to be directing the next movie can do something more with the talented cast, think American Pie (his 1999 effort) meets Anne Rice....

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How creative!

Gestalt

Following from my post on heuristics, i shall share what i just found out about the Gestalt Principles. Chong Long, my friend who's studying media in NTU introduced me to this concept after I asked him about some stuff on branding.

From my understanding, Gestalt psychology talks about the principle of totality. Our mind will see things by 'summing them up' to have them make more sense to us.

From wiki: 

Principle of Totality - The conscious experience must be considered globally (by taking into account all the physical and mental aspects of the individual simultaneously) because the nature of the mind demands that each component be considered as part of a system of dynamic relationships.

The Gestalt 'laws' are SIMILARITY, CONTINUATION, CLOSURE, PROXIMITY, FIGURE & GROUND.

One of the examples of gestalt laws at work is the symbol for WWF. And yes, i believe that the featured character is a favorite of ZhaoBin, here's a tribute to him for being such a great friend and for surprising me with a post card sent form USA. PANDA!!!!!

If you look at the above picture, the picture of the panda is not 'complete'. But we are able to perceive that see that it is a panda, but filling up the white spaces. 

The following picture is also very effective in communicating with the audience the need to spread the message about saving wildlife animals. A few black curved lines that is drawn on the panda's ears would allow us to SEE that it is like a transmitter radio station sending our radio waves. But wait! Have we ever SEEN radio waves 'live'? No...what we have seen is a depiction of waves as presented in charts and diagrams. Isn't the human mind amazing? 

 

However there is danger in the way our brain processes such info. We may recognize patterns or info when IT IS NOT THERE. If it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, acts like a duck, IT MAY NOT BE A DUCK...at this point i'm thinking about the disney movie, bolt, where the dog acts, thinks, behaves like a super dog, but he's just an ordinary dog. 

After we have created an impression of what we think we should see, we paint a world where we see the thing. 

How creative and convenient, yet so dangerous if we are not aware of our shortcomings :)

Heuristic

We live in a complex world and we are forced to make thousands of decisions in a day. How we largely avoid banging into each other while walking on the street is a pretty amazing decision making process. Its a little waltz that we do intuitively, by processing thousands of signals and implement the appropriate action - speed, facial expression, level of congestion, weather,etc.

To simplify our decision making process, we often rely on heuristic to make decision. Heuristic, or 'rule of thumb' allow us to survive in this world without over taxing our brain.

An abuse of heuristic may lead to dire consequences. In behavioral finance, we learn that heuristics such as anchoring or sample size bias can lead to sub-optimal decisions. However, when heuristics are used in the decision making for doctors, misuse could lead to wrong treatment or possibly death.

Reading a fascinating book called "How Doctors Think" by Jerome Groopman. Amazing book. It brings you through how doctors make decisions, what are the conditions that wrong decisions are made, and how PATIENTS and DOCTORS can work together to reduce misdiagnosis. I don't understand the medical terms in the book at all, so i shall not attempt to use it. haha.

Imagine you see a dirty looking old man reeking with smell of liquour sent into the ER with bloated limbs, you'll first assume there's something wrong with his liver, when in fact there could be something wrong with some other organs (too).

Another common problem is the one that is dealt with by jie chao on his post on bayesian analysis. Failure to adjust for base rate could lead to unnecessary treatments despite the very high accuracy of the test itself.

Doctors who work with mental checklist can prevent some of these heuristics. But doctors are human too, they have their own preference and incentives. As patients, we should look out for these human fallibility and be alert to point these out to the doctors if we suspect that it has occurred.

Amazing little book. It just might save my life one day...


--------------------------------------------------------------

Daniel's parents are two of the kindest people that i've met. People who offer their help even when none was asked warm our hearts. I'll forever be grateful for their kind words. Hope Daniel recovers soon. Haiz, only he will air my fabricated dirty laundry in front of his family. Seriously, if he doesn't want to be in finance, he can be a really successful writer with his vivid imaginations. hahah.

Two drops of oil

My exchange to Canada is drawing near. And with my parents' support, I've also applied to internships in Hong Kong. Exciting, yet, i feel a little sad that i won't be around my family and friends for that period of time .

In  The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho, the following story is told by an old man to a young shepherd before he embarks on his journey to find his treasure. I love this story. And i hope we can all find out what our two drops of oil are, and never lose sight of it. 

"A certain shopkeeper sent his son to learn about the secret of happiness from the wisest man in the world. The lad wandered through the desert for forty days, and finally came upon a beautiful castle, high atop a mountain. It was there that the wise man lived.

Rather than finding a saintly man, though, our hero, on entering the main room of the castle, saw a hive of activity: tradesmen came and went, people were conversing in the corners, a small orchestra was playing soft music, and there was a table covered with platters of the most delicious food in that part of the world. The wise man conversed with everyone, and the boy had to wait for two hours before it was his turn to be given the man's attention.

The wise man listened attentively to the boy's explanation of why he had come, but told him that he didn't have time just then to explain the secret of happiness. He suggested that the boy look around the palace and return in two hours.

'Meanwhile, I want to ask you to do something,' said the wise man, handing the boy a teaspoon that held two drops of oil. 'As you wander around, carry this spoon with you without allowing the oil to spill.'

The boy began climbing and descending the many stairways of the palace, keeping his eyes fixed on the spoon. After two hours, he returned to the room where the wise man was.

'Well,' asked the wise man, 'did you see the Persian tapestries that are hanging in my dining hall? Did you see the garden that it took the master gardener ten years to create? Did you notice the beautiful parchments in my library?'

The boy was embarrassed, and confessed that he had observed nothing. His only concern had been not to spill the oil that the wise man had entrusted to him.

'Then go back and observe the marvels of my world,' said the wise man. 'You cannot trust a man if you don't know his house.'

Relieved, the boy picked up the spoon and returned to his exploration of the palace, this time observing all of the works of art on the ceilings and the walls. He saw the gardens, the mountains all around him, the beauty of the flowers, and the taste with which everything had been selected. Upon returning to the wise man, he related in detail everything he had seen.

‘But where are the drops of oil I entrusted to you?' asked the wise man. Looking down at the spoon he held, the boy saw that the oil was gone.

'Well, there is only one piece of advice I can give you,' said the wisest of wise men. 'The secret of happiness is to see all the marvels of the world, and never to forget the drops of oil on the spoon.' "

What is this feeling...

Exams are finally over! This is my most shiong semester ever. I think that AT and AFA is a deadly combo, should be taken with care. I'm most uncertain about the outcome of my essay based exams. The two numerical ones are just off. AFA would depends on how much prof gives us marks for 'workings'. For MS, the finals is so freakin easy that in a course the 'bells' the students, mid terms will become the determining factor....n i didn't do well in midterms....haiz...

On a positive note, i am truly grateful for my experience in Accounting Theory. It opens my mind to new ideas, new realities and possibly, new definition of 'true and fair' that accountants hold so dear to. I also realize how inadequate my abilities to read, write, and speak are. If i can't express my thoughts, how will the other party understand what i intend to say.

Thankful to all those people who helped me tremendously this sem, xin hong, chin ta, shakeeb, say wai, wen xiang and many more.... I hope we all do well.

Reading jie chao's post on the futility of exams makes me a little sad. I agree with his general idea that exams tells us little about how a person will perform when given a task. But i think that to a limited sense, it shows the discipline, mental curiosity and work ethics a person has. Furthermore, in the SMU where a subject that can be taught over a year is taught in 14 three hours seminar, to do well, one must learn 'how to learn'. If someone is equipped with the right skills to learn, one can evolve and adapt to the ever changing environment. What we learn in schools have a useful life of probably 4-6 years after graduation anyway. So have the right perspective and attitude towards learning is what i've gained most over the past 3 years.

Time to apply some more financial institutions in hope of getting some internship opportunities next summer. Given the current nationalization of banks, i wonder what the future of the financial market will look like....

To all my friends applying for internships, ALL THE BEST! 

so tired....i am.....rather lost....sleep....

One Day More!

Listened to Les Miserables on my way to school. Sang (hopefully silently) in the MRT and felt better.

I'm really stressed out by this exam, more so than any other terms. It could be a combi of the modules that i'm taking and also that Andrew, Daniel & Damien, whom i've depended so much on for the past few exams are now on exchange. Fortunately those that are still around provides me with sufficient support to survive...

There is a glimmer of hope for AFA, understood some concepts better over the past week. However, speed is still a HUGE problem. Since i don't have the luxury of time during exam, i must level up in terms of speed over the next few days.

Tmrw is my AT exam. I think i got my content knowledge. But how do i present them in a form that show the prof i know my stuff? The following advice is given by Prof JJ "Try to spend a little time reflecting back on what it took to write a good General Paper in A levels....Also, try not to be repetitive in your arguments....Of course style is important so try to write with a dark pen, in a way that I can read, and with good professional quality." GP is my weakest subject in JC and I've not written a single argumentative essay for the past 6 years!!! I can only imagine the pain JJ will be going through trying to decipher my message when he marks my paper.

MS, by Prof Pascale is NOT EASY. Haiz, Andrew said she's fine and that her exams are fine. But now i realised that that's Andrew speaking. Once he understands something, he can execute smoothly. I can't do that. I need to practise. MS as taught by Pascale is so fluid that attempts to spot qn and find model solutions are futile. Totally ignored MPW. Leaving it for the rest of Friday afternnon and Sat moring before sitting for the exam.

One day more to AT. One week more to liberation! Run Freedom Run!!!!

To whoever reading this blog and having exams. ALL THE BEST!






Tomorrow is the judgement day
Tomorrow we'll discover
What our God in Heaven has in store!
One more dawn
One more day
One day more!

Learning Curve

From MPW...Stages of learning

1. Unconscious Incompetence

2. Conscious Incompetence

3. Conscious Competence

4. Unconscious Competence

My improvements in AFA over the past week;

Unconscious Incompetence --> Conscious Incompetence

Luckily there's such a thing called 'past year paper' and 'exams'. If not i'll probably be at the stage of unconscious incompetence forever.

The current financial tsunami showed the world who has been swimming naked when the tide was high...mmm...the market has a peculiar way of showing off the emperor's new clothes. However, those who can identify accurately their own circle of competence, AND not stray out of it, will probably be constantly in a state of Conscious or Unconscious Competence. Ask the Fried Hokkien Mee uncle if he thinks about what to do after heating the wok he'll probably laugh. Thats Unconscious Competence.

Hopefully within a week i can level up....

Comic Relief

Joel sent me these funny pix...much needed relief form studying...thx!

Personality test

Saw this on cg's blog and tried it out. mmmm...quite true.

Quiz available here

Your view on yourself:

Other people find you very interesting, but you are really hiding your true self. Your friends love you because you are a good listener. They'll probably still love you if you learn to be yourself with them.

The type of girlfriend/boyfriend you are looking for:

You are a true romantic. When you are in love, you will do anything and everything to keep your love true.

Your readiness to commit to a relationship:

You are ready to commit as soon as you meet the right person. And you believe you will pretty much know as soon as you might that person.

The seriousness of your love:

Your have very sensible tactics when approaching the opposite sex. In many ways people find your straightforwardness attractive, so you will find yourself with plenty of dates.

Your views on education

Education is very important in life. You want to study hard and learn as much as you can.

The right job for you:

You're a practical person and will choose a secure job with a steady income. Knowing what you like to do is important. Find a regular job doing just that and you'll be set for life.

How do you view success:

You are afraid of failure and scared to have a go at the career you would like to have in case you don't succeed. Don't give up when you haven't yet even started! Be courageous.

What are you most afraid of:

You are afraid of things that you cannot control. Sometimes you show your anger to cover up how you feel.

Who is your true self:

You are mature, reasonable, honest and give good advice. People ask for your comments on all sorts of different issues. Sometimes you might find yourself in a dilemma when trapped with a problem, which your heart rather than your head needs to solve.

CQ

Bill Gross on common sense:

"A CQ is what I think of as a “Common Sense Quotient.” It refers to an ability to not just absorb information and recycle it upon demand, but to analyse it and apply it within a uniquely different environment or context. A CQ Mensa candidate is able to view the world in a state of apparent equilibrium and wonder – “does this make sense?” And if not, “what might change it, and when?” The problem with measuring CQ, however, is that you never can be quite sure that you or anyone else has it. It’s elusive and perhaps even ephemeral. It’s also uniquely personal: the world always makes sense when viewed from your own eyes – it’s those other people who can’t seem to understand. Still – in the business and investment worlds – time has a habit of unmasking one-dimensional pretenders who have the obvious IQ, but score below 100 with an experience-tested CQ. Warren Buffett, a bona fide Mensa in both categories, said it best many years ago in his usual folksy way: “You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.”

Read the latest Bill Gross article here. Subscribe to the podcast and listen to articles from 2 years ago. Amazing learning experience for me.

Derivatives...yes no maybe?!?

Submitted our AFA project today. All projects finally submitted. Phew. Time to mug.

Reviewing FRS 39 today (tmrw and the next few days) and i tried to link it back to 'real life' situations. Then i thought of my Monopoly game with my cousins a few weeks ago. There was one transaction that i think i'm not sure how to account for.

The transaction

I want Jolyn's Pentonville Road (cost 120) and she wants my Leicester Square (cost 260). I have the other 2 light blue property so i'm keen to get my hands on Pentonville to form a set so as to built hotels for my lovely cousins to stay in. However Jolyn is NOT willing to part with it, cuz i think she only has no money on hand to develop her properties (even if she does form a complete set).

Meanwhile i have a hotel built on Vine Street ($2000 per stay). So i gave my cousin the deal of the century, she get to have Leicester AND one free stay at Vine street in exchange for Pentonville Road.  She agreed. How should should Jolyn account for her property?

She gave up Pentonville and gained 1 property and a free stay.

I think the journal entries would involve the following

Dr Free Stay

Dr Leicester

Cr Pentoville (at historical cost of $120)

Cr Gain on sale???

Now, should Leicester be valued at MY historical cost of $260, or at a exchange price of $XXX?

How should the free stay be valued? Is it a derivative? I think it is the present value of $2000 discounted at some rate given some probability distribution. But i don't think it fits the definition of either options or forwards. I can't even think of the payoff function from Jolyn's point of view...

Would there be the credit Gain on Sale? is it a residual after we value 'free stay', 'leicester' less 'pentoville'? If the 'free stay' is indeed a derivatives, is it governed by FRS 39?

by the way, Jolyn is Sec One. So i think she fully meets the 'knowledgeable and willing seller + arms length' criteria. I'm not a bully k?

ok. far too many question marks. Please tag to let me know what you think. (other than telling me you think i streeessssseeddddd. hahaha). 

Oh ya, thanks to cheeguan, i gotta clear some more CIP hours during the christmas caroling. yippee!

The intelligent investor

Listened to "The Intelligent Investor" last night again to calm me down. Benjamin Graham divided investors into the 'defensive investor' and the 'enterprising investor'. The defensive investor seeks to achieve normal stock return without too much effort. The enterprising investor seeks to achieve abnormal profit by seeking out intelligent opportunities and exploit them.

Graham suggested that by holding a diversified list of stocks of the largest company should be the method employed by the defensive investor. Today, this could be achieved by purchasing a low cost index fund or ETF.

The enterprising investor would however need to put in a lot more effort to achieve above average results. Empirically, most funds fail to outperform their benchmark. Given the huge resources asset managers have at hand, it could come to a surprise to many that why they can't do better than their benchmark. A benchmark is afterall simply an index of stocks chosen by a committee which exhibits certain basic characteristic (size, industry representation, profitability,etc). However, human nature would probably preclude exceptional performance. Its uncomfortable being alone. To outperform the average, by definition, would mean one has to be alone in certain decisions at times. Thus there are many closeted index hugger who simply over/under weigh certain stocks and HOPE to achieve alpha while charging obscene fees.

The author also suggests the experience told him that one is unlikely to be BOTH a defensive investor and a enterprising investor. A enterprising investor's behaves like a businessman tending over his share of businesses which he owns a minority stake. A successful enterprising investor is a successful businessman. How many successful businessman have you heard saying that 'if i put in less effort, i'll still be successful, just less so than i'm currently is.' If success in investing and in business is dichotomous, then one can't be both a successful defensive investor and successful enterprising investor.

----------------------------------------

I was reviewing Accounting Theory today and i'm really glad that SMU offers this course and Prof JJ teaches it.
In one session, he asked us (i) what is capital, (ii) what is income, (iii) Is income capital?

If we loosely define capital as what owners contribute to the firm, and income is simply revenue less expenses as we learn in all Financial accounting 101/3 course, then how do we reconcile (iii) Is income capital. We all know that income for a period is equivalent to ending capital less beginning capital adjusted for any capital contribution. Thus if we can't measure beginning and ending capital, how can we then 'measure' income?

We 'closes' income and all items on the profit and loss statement to the "retained earnings" on the balance sheet. If Income is a measure of 'flow/unit time', and balance sheet is a point in 'time', does it make sense to add income to balance sheet? Imagine you ask someone how much distance did he travel, and he adds speed (flow/unit time) to time!!! Accountants have implicitly multiplied the net profit by ONE unit time to allow it to be added to the balance sheet.

Is depreciation expense a asset? if i tell prof gan that, i think he'll faint :) but prof jj gave us the example that we can allocate depreciation expense to WIP, and WIP stays as an asset on you balance sheet until you sell it. So this 'expense' can be an 'asset'. Haha.

And if there's anyone who truly think that accounting is unbiased and judgement free, they would have to take this course. The very fact the many powerful corporations spent millions lobbying for certain accounting treatments tells us that there is real economic consequences when firms adopt different accounting treatments. The lobbying against the expensing of stock options during the mid 90s till early part of this decade is a telling story. Warren Buffett was the lone (and unheard...or heard but unheeded) voice (from major corporations) that believe that options should be expensed. But powerful VCs, pension plans and dotcom startups lobbied against it. It took the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the enron, worldcom debacle to wake SEC up to push for changes.

Accounting is a not a judgement free. Even if the accountants prepare it with the highest integrity, we still gotta read financial statements with a kidney failure inducing pinch of salt. Without thinking through all these issues, how can one be an Intelligent Investor?

Disgust

Just had my AFA quiz. Utterly disgusted by my lack of preparation. I hate the face that's looking back at me when i stare into the mirror. Fcuking swine. To classify meself as pig would disgrace all pigs.

My mind went blank looking at the question on foreign exchange translation. Then the song 'lollipop' by Mika pops into my mind and the chorus goes on re-loop. The last time this happened was in year 1 during Management Accounting finals.

Only started revising on Weds. It took me 3 weeks to prepare for my first quiz. See how buang i am with only 3 days of preparation. Pearl Tan is such a wonderful professor. I do no justice to her great teachings. Talk so much in class but can't deliver the goods. Nothing but hot air.

"Resolve to perform what you ought, perform without fail what you resolve." ~ Ben Franklin

Live it.

Puppets

Ave Q is Wicked! hahaha!


And thanks to zkai who introduced me to Mika. Amazing talent!

Mika - Grace Kelly
by SamFisher037

Amazing Day

Watched Avenue Q today! Its amazing. 

Warning! Puppet Nudity on Stage. haha. These puppets do things on stage that only puppets can get away with. Mmmm...so now we know that on stage, as long as its puppets doing it, it will not be censored.

The cast is fun and sounds great. The energy level was high throughout and interaction with the audience was pretty good too. Glad that i watched it with the choir people, if not i'll be the ONLY one laughing that loud. I think i traumatized the very pregnant looking lady sitting beside me, she must be wondering what type of monster am i?

Went K-box afterwards. Released lots of pent up stress! haha. Never realised how much i like the Amy Winehouse's Rehab until just now where i have a huge urge to sing that song! Crazy woman...maybe that's why i identify with her songs...hahaha...

Weird. i can't post on my tagbox...something's wrong....

3 more weeks to EXAMS!!!! gotta put my act together and put on a brilliant performance. Its like in a musical, before the intermission, the song is typically the best song in the show. This term is my song before my break. The dark hours before dawn. I'll survive anyhow.

The Uncommon Sense

Watched the Charlie Munger interview in Caltech (March 2008) again last night. Munger is truly amazing. The way he put things across is both eloquent and direct. He talks about issues ranging from his favorite subject on mental models, the problem with the social sciences, his fear for nuclear proliferation and what young poeple should do to get ahead in life.

He said something along the line that after being around people who are the best in their field, he realised that he'll never be the GREATEST in any field. So the question is 'How to do very well without being very good in anything?" Soln: Given that there is so much folly in the world, he think the if he simply avoids all these follies, he's pretty sure to he'll do quite well.

He also talks about the folly that has gone into derivatives accounting. The fact the accountants 'blessed' the accounting figures and FASB issued the accounting rules in no way means that the numbers mean anything. Imagine that you have 200 regulators looking at the books of Freddie and Fannie and NOT be able to figure out what is really wrong BEFORE it blows up tells us much about how convoluted the accounting of these two institution is.

Studying FRS 39 in my Advance Financial Accounting course now, and i must say that Prof Pearl Tan makes the whole , and i find some of the rules rather silly. Due to rules in derivatives accounting (for cash flow hedge), we have to recognise the associated asset or liability for the hedge instrument. However, due to the 'matching' principle, companies are required to recognise the 'hedged item' even before it materialise or risk and reward has been transferred. That's crazy!!! The whole idea of revenue recognition has been flipped upside down.

Furthermore, the inputs that goes into 'estimating' profits and fair value would allow two parties to BOTH book a profit in zero sum game. Such atrocities are once again blessed by the accountants. If you tie management compensation to the these numbers that are estimated (or fabricated), what numbers do you expect to get? Of course we will expect aggressive accounting, and unless the auditors can VERIFY that the numbers are wrong, the accounts will be certified True and Fair if not risking losing the clients. But such estimates are in its essence NOT VERIFIABLE. We can only trust the manager's conscience in estimating the fair value of such opaque accounting figures. Gosh, i have been partly brain washed by Prof JJ!!! AAAAHHHHH!!!!

Go watch the video and be blown away!
http://today.caltech.edu/theater/item?story%5fid=30623
If any of you wants the extracted audio, drop me a mail :)

Charles T. Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is the business partner of Warren Buffett and a major contributor to Berkshire Hathaway's legendary performance record. Forbes lists the self-made Munger as one of the 400 richest people in the United States.

The 'A Team'

The Straits Times (25th Oct) article which MM Lee commented on some human capital issues gave me much to think about. 

On the qualities of A Team members: "people with good minds, a sense of obligation to do a good job for the people and the ability to execute". He also cautioned against glib speaker who cannot deliver performance. 

Commenting on out local architecture: "(Here in Singapore, we just pick them by their O levels and A levels, what they scored for math, science, languages, not... how well they did in aesthetics.  We've had the same problem with architecture. We have stereotype buildings....i wonder why. Because we employ or rather we train people who scored well in engineering..."

On knowledge and creating an environment to foster it: "You've got to make it quite clear that knowledge, learning, application of knowledge are what will gain you a good life. If they come to the conclusion that the system depends on good connections, skiving, cheating, then you are in trouble because he sees no reason in acquiring all this knowledge."

Sometimes i wonder who will be the future leaders that are churned out from the nice little factory called SMU. I worry that we will be stereotyped as those who are "glib speaker who cannot deliver performance". Prof Leong warned us against that in Year 1. Given that one has to present to the class more than at least 5 times a sem, it is natural that he/she will be more skilled at presenting than people who have not had the opportunity. However, there's always the case of people who has contributed little to the project, but due to their eloquence, scored brownie points with the prof. In the name of collegiality or just plain unwillingness to 'rock the boat', many of us will not act to 'out' such people. 

I'm really fortunate that in my past 3 years, i've only met ONE such person, and it was a course that i really couldn't care less about. Haha. Most of my team mates are great people who deliver what they promise, and many times more. It such a wonderful experience working with people you can totally trust. Sometimes i would look at people around me and ask myself, "if i am to go into business in the future, who will i want to partner. Who am i willing to work under?" and it often leads to the simple question of "Who can i trust?" which finally leads to the question "Will people trust me and am i trustworthy?"

Acquire knowledge, learn, apply the knowledge, commit, execute and deliver, and never break my promises.

Pascal

Sent the following quote to some friends today "How can a part know the whole? Man is related to everything he knows. And everything is both cause and effect, working and worked upon, mediate and immediate, all things mutually dependent." Pensees by Blaise Pascal

When i read this quote, i was thinking along the line of Munger's multidisciplinary approach to decision making. Then i thought it was about always leaving room for uncertainty, or Feynman's notion on mankind's precious gift of "freedom to dobut". 

Then i got a reply from Guoyi, who said "...that the part cannot know the whole does not mean there is no whole. And all of man's pursuit can be said to be in search of that illusive whole, which if found, would render man no longer man, but God. Are all things cause and effect? How can we know if we cannot see the whole?"

Wow! Guoyi gets straight to the core of the question. And from Pensees, the following was put forth "But perhaps this subject goes beyond the capacity of reason." That explains why Wiki said that Pensees represented Pascal defense of the Christian religion. (and it is disturbing that i'm quoting Wiki like it is some sage or something). Included in the treatise, is the famous Pascal's wager, "You must wager; it is not optional... Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God exists... If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing. Wager, then, without hesitation, that He exists."

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Sometimes i wonder what have i gained from studying stuff i studied in accountancy? and Weifa asked me a good question last week, "would you trust financial statements?". I think i would now read financial statements with a HUGE pinch of salt. And at least i kinda know what is the the process that goes into 'making' the financial statements, so reading FS makes slightly more sense.

There is some sort of economic reality 'out there'. A FS tries to represent all that (at least the so called "true and fair" ones). Without knowing how these 'stuff' in real world is being represented in the FS, it makes no sense trying to analyze financial ratios and make decision based on a set of figures we don't even understand. 

Recent move by both SEC/FASB in the US and EU Committee/IASB to modify Fair value accounting rules when there is an inactive market would be a case in point. Without knowing the how the financial figures of Level I, II and III assets come about, how could we know what is the financial position of a firm (at least those with this sort of assets)? When people discussed about "marked to model", how many of us actually know the actual inputs to the model, what affects the model, what are they exactly modeling? What is the extent of disclosure needed? and analytical adjustments FS users should make?

If we do not understand how the accounting figures are created, how are we going to be able to understand the FS? 

If we don't understand the FS, then how can we claim that we understand the firm we are analyzing through its FS? 

If the FS itself does not even reflect economic reality then what should we rely on?

What is economic reality?

What is reality?

The real deal

I think Tina Fey should run for president. Alec Baldwin can be her VP. Love the cameo by Sarah Palin: "No, I won't take your question".

Management Science

Had a wonderful time during MS today. Today's lesson is on probability, which was more like a review of what i've learnt in A levels and Stats 101 course. It is sad that i have not learnt much from these past teachings, especially on the concept of joint probability and conditional probability. I need to grasp the super useful concept of Bayes' theorem, where observation is used to update probability of event.

Jie Chao ask me a question after reading"Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb. A variant of the question is as follow; A drug test will correctly identify a drug user with positive test result 99% of the time, and will correctly identify a non-user as test negative 99% of the time. Given that 0.5 % of the underlying population are drug user, what is the probability of a person being tested POSITIVE is actually a NON-USER?
(the above example is adapted from wikipedia, look under example 1)

MCQ

So imagine now that a friend of yours went through the test and tested POSITIVE, what's the probability of him being a NON-USER? 

a) 7% (i'm almost certain he's guilty)

b) 37% (i'm quite sure he's guilty) 

c) 67 % (i think he's probably innocent)

d) 100% (no friend of mine would do drugs!!!)

Guess, and dun cheat by looking at wiki answer. Alternatively, it would be great if you can dig out your A levels notes and calculate it (maybe only XinHong is diligent enough to do this, heehee). Answer at the end of the post :)

Then Prof Pascale Crama gave us the classic Monty Hall problem. She let us chose from 1 of 3 envelope of which one contains 20 dollars (REAL CASH). She'll reveal an empty envelop after i've chosen one and i'll be given a chance to change my envelop. The twist is that we'll have to bid for the chance to play the game. NO ONE in the class participated at first. Damn weird, prof giving out money and almost no one wanted to play the game by giving up even 1 buck. Finally some students participated and i WON the bid at $5. 

The probability of winning is about 67% (if you change the envelope) thus expected return is about $13. I'm willing to bid up to $8 to play this game. I changed the envelope after prof revealed the empty one. and I WON!!! yippee, 400% return on my initial investment!!!! since we only spent about 5 mins on this activity, can you imagine the ANNUALIZED return?!? haha. Fat hope.

---------------------------------------------------

"When Markets Collide" is so engaging that i can hardly put it down over the past few days. The changing role of emerging economies in the globally will put a strain on current infrastructure. There will likely be displacement in the market and it will take some time for the world to adapt to.  As a creditor to many 'developed' countries, there are many challenges that they will faced. Singapore was mentioned in the book as an exemplary example of how a country should manage its reserve. And it is also a model that many emerging economies will follow. For a good summary this changing landscape was published by Legg Mason's Maubossin article.

Reading letters by great investors that have been through market cycles allow us to see thru the valley and maintain a long term view. The Wintergreen Fund has been investing successfully globally over the years. A discussion by Bill Nygren on the 'mistakes' he has committed is particularly educational and refreshing. Click on the following paragraph to read the original commentary. And click here to read the letters to shareholders. 

What did you miss on Washington Mutual?
Washington Mutual was held in all three Funds I co-manage. We sold our position during the quarter when it appeared that regulators were increasingly looking at mark-to-market implied losses, which eliminated the chance that Washington Mutual could, over time, earn back its mortgage losses. Selling was the right decision but by the time we sold, the damage had been done. Owning Washington Mutual was a big mistake for which I fully accept responsibility. Though we believed home prices had been rising at an unsustainable pace, we took comfort that previous home price bubbles had corrected with home prices plateauing for several years rather than sharply falling. Expecting that to continue, I took too much comfort in the fact that the overwhelming majority of mortgages Washington Mutual owned had balances of less than 80% of appraised value. Believing that the collateral was so valuable, I wasn’t as concerned as I should have been with softening underwriting standards. After all, if the borrower defaulted, the house could still be sold for more than the mortgage debt. After nationwide prices fell 20%—and further in hot markets—the collateral was no longer worth more than the loan, and serious losses resulted. A mortgage market previously viewed as secure became viewed as very risky. Sellers flooded the market, and prices fell sharply. Because of its leverage, Washington Mutual’s assets, marked-to-market, were no longer greater than its liabilities. Ironically, the asset we’ve always believed was under appreciated, its strong retail deposit base, is now owned by another of our holdings, JP Morgan. Though there are many lessons to be learned from this error, perhaps the most important is that in today’s economic climate, we need to consider a broader array of outcomes than we previously considered, especially for companies that employ financial leverage.

Lastly, Warren Buffett wrote on op-ed on NYT. READ IT!

The ans to the mcq is C. Your friend has a 67% probability of being a non-user. So be wary of such tests results.

The Art and Science of Happiness

Attended a talk at SMU today entitled, The Art and Science of Happiness: Perspectives from Philosophy, Psychology and Neuroscience. It is a very interesting mix of different discipline approaching the seemingly simple issue of happiness.

Prof Mark Nowacki approached the notion of happiness as human flourishing. He suggested Virtues as a tool of happiness and that it is a special form of habit. As with all habits, virtue requires practice. If we practice virtue in a right environment, we would probably flourish and "be happy". His arguments was elegant, but quite chim for me to grasp. Haha. He was my Analytical Skill prof who tortured me in Year 1. 

The second speaker talks about some technique to intervene to make us happier. Prof Tov presented on research that suggests that exercise like think about gratitude, acts of kindness, and positive thinking may help us feel happier. He also touched on the concept of "flow " where one will feel energized, and that the task on hand will be enjoyable and rewarding. Jie chao, reminds me to borrow the book from you when my term ends.

Prof Farber presentation on some of the mechanics of the brain provided me with many new information. We were introduced to some neurotransmitter and its impact on how we feel.   

Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that modulates our level of aggression, mood, social behavior, sexuality, appetite, demand for sleep and a whole host of other factors. A level of serotonin that is too low has been linked to clinical depression. Prozac, the famous anti-depressant, targets the level of serotonin and helps reduce occurrence of depression in the patients.

The professor asks the audience that if this neurotransmitter seem to be ‘bad’ human, so why has it not been removed from the process of evolution? A suggestion he made was that Serotonin also acts as a regulator of your point of view of your social status. It was found that in patient that went through traumatic accident, the level of serotonin was low. 

Imagine you’re an alpha male ape living in an ape tribe. After an accident that caused you to lose an arm and a lower Serotonin level which will make you think less highly of yourself. If you still think that you are an alpha male, you could get clobbered by the rest of the tribe. So the neurotransmitter ‘helps’ us not over step our social status to ‘protect’ us. Interesting. Dan Humphrey from gossip girl must have out of sync level of serotonin that caused him to hook up with Serena…or maybe he’s just plain dumb, or is he trying to make use of Serena to climb the social ladder to be the alpha male in town???

Oh ya, don’t do drugs. Morphine for instance screws up your level of Opioid. You’ll have that ‘blissful’ happiness feeling when level of Opioid is high. But if you take drugs like morphine, your brain will be so screwed up to appreciated other from of stimulus. Many types of drugs fry up your brain. Ya. So stay away from drugs so we can still appreciate that fresh cup of coffee with kaya toast.

By the way, it seems that Chocolates helps stimulate the level of Serotonin and Dopamine. But over consuming it and our body will convert it into Melatonin, which in large dosage wrecks your sex drive. Not forgetting that it is highly fattening, 294 kcal per Mars bar and 106 kcal for 2 fingers of kit kat. 

Will knowing all these make us happy? I don't know. But at least we may be able to better explain why we are... 

Bipolar Disorder

Bipolar disorder is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a category of mood disorders defined by the presence of one or more episodes of abnormally elevated mood clinically referred to as mania or, if milder, hypomania. Individuals who experience manic episodes also commonly experience depressive episodes or symptoms, or mixed episodes in which features of both mania and depression are present at the same time. These episodes are usually separated by periods of "normal" mood, but in some individuals, depression and mania may rapidly alternate, known as rapid cycling. Extreme manic episodes can sometimes lead to psychotic symptoms such as delusions and hallucinations.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipolar_disorder

Is the market exhibiting signs of bipolar disorder? S&P 500 fell from 1300 in early sept to a low to 850 last friday and rose to a high of over 1010 over the short span of 3 trading session. 

Is it possible that the 500 largest companies in the US increase in value by over 18%?

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Jeremy Tang sent this super fun link. Experience the world of Wii yourself!

When Markets Collide

Reading a very interesting book called "When Markets Collide" written by PIMCO's co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian. I'm only about less than half way through it and i realize how naive i have been in interpreting news, events and data over the past 2 years. The author encourages us to adopt a flexible 'thinking model' and asked us to learn how to interpret noise in the market. Btw, the book is up against Snowball in the FT/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the year award.

In a world of cyclical change, the way to deal with noise is largely to fade it and treat it as temporary and reversible. However, the author suggests that the current instability in the market suggests a longer term secular change in the financial market. Inconsistencies in the bond and equity market last year (a inverse yield curve and a rising stock market) and developing states being the largest creditor to the industrial world suggests that the there could be large developing change in the economic landscape. 

I'm reading it i immediately realized that i have been FAR too willing to accept the idea that "this too shall pass" and too quick to dismiss the notion that "this time is different". When reality contradicts my previous belief, i got stuck in the world of poorly developed misconceptions instead of going all out to explore and learn new ideas. I shall not succumb to hubris at such a young age. I shall be fearless in learning new ideas and be ruthless in destroying cherished opinions. Principles towards investing stay (ie long term and value oriented), but my attitude must improve. 

The difficulty lies not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

John Maynard Keynes

We are the lucky bunch

Totally enjoyed Daniel's post on some of the perils of value investing. It is both insightful and thought provoking. Daniel made a good case against jumping into US equities and why us mortals not being Warren Buffett should not emulate his every move, Xin Hong's post on his blog as usual gives us much to learn from. 

I agree with Daniel to a very large extent. However, as a cock eyed optimist (or at least an optimist with lazy eye), i think that the decision to 'jump in' or not is totally dependent on the investor's time horizon and risk appetite. I have a 30 year time horizon and can stomach a fall of my portfolio of over 50%, thus i'm fully invested. And Daniel, reading Cramer and Buffett's dueling view, i think they could be both right depending on holding horizon.

Some reflection...

Should i have lighten up on stocks earlier last year? on hindsight, yes. 

But given what i know then, should i sell? maybe. 

Looking at what i know today, should i buy/sell/hold? I'm cautiously optimistic.

As on the thesis of diversification, i believe that the two extreme ends make sense. Extreme diversification in the form of globally diversified index fund is how i do it, and that's where the bulk of my assets are. On the other hand, my portfolio picks consists of less than 10 stocks, with the top 3 making up almost half of the active management base. I'm surprised that this portfolio has held up quite well over the past 2 years against major indices, despite committing stupid mistakes like CFC and LEH. The common thread that runs through the failed investments is that i would never want to own the WHOLE company. So it is also not right that i would want to hold a slice of the company. 

In this world which prolong recession is probable and tight credit market,  i would ask myself the following question after finding a GOOD COMPANY before buying what is seemingly cheap.

1. Does the company depends on the credit market to maintain its operation? 

This would rule out many financial institutions, developers and companies that rely on debt refinancing to maintain operating cashflow.

2. Does the manager have substantial stake in the company? 

Angelo Mozilo, the CEO of CFC was busy selling shares before the share price went down and down.

3. Does the company have enough cash on hand and HIGHLY liquid assets that is not encumbered (e.g. pledged as collateral)? should there be a need to raise cash to pay for whatever.

4. After all the above criteria has been satisfied, can the company survive if they do no business over the next year or so while maintaining the required cash expenses (wages, rental etc)?

5. Is equity the best form of security to hold?

Holding debt or quasi equity investment in a perfectly decent company may be more advantageous than than common equity.

6. Following qn 5, are there more senior securities in the company that any upside of the firm no long accrues to common equity holder?

We are really lucky to have this crises to learn from. Imagine that those bankers who are in their forties wouldn't have experienced the late 70s crazy inflation and early 80s S&L crises. Even the banking crises in late 80s was comparatively short lived. The relative prosperity of 90s sprinkled with the dot.com bust and LTCM debacle is nothing compared to the current crises.

PIMCO's Bill Gross Oct commentary is out. Fear the McFear! Go read it.

 

The Great Crash

Finished "The Great Crash (1929)" by John Kenneth Galbraith last night. It was an amazing read and it is both highly entertaining and insightful. Thanks Prof JJ for recommending it. Wow, the nature of Man's greed has not changed at all. The author gave a short summary of the characteristic of a speculative bubble;

"... But here is a basic and recurrent process. It comes with rising prices, whether of stocks, real estate, works of art or anything else. This increase attracts attention and buyers, which produces the further effect of even higher prices. Expectations are thus justified by the very action that send prices up. The process continues; optimism with its market effect is the order of the day. Prices go up even more. Then for reasons that will endless be debated, comes the end. The descent is always more sudden than the increase; a balloon that has been punctured does not deflate in an orderly way."

The financial orgies that bankers and speculators engaged in came to an abrupt end early last year. But 2007 was the calm before the storm. Banks that have thrived on loose credit and rising home prices have suffered (to say the least) when home prices start to fall. As banks faced higher defaults, 'disciplined underwriting' came back to vogue suddenly and risky borrowers that have been been enjoying the high life by refinancing previous loans suddenly faced calls on loans with no available lenders. 

Home owners in some many american states could no longer use their houses as ATM and drawdown their home equity. Many faced negative home equity instead. Exotic financial instruments such as CDO, MBO, CDS exploded. The banks start to suspect each others balance sheet (due to the toxic mess in the assets) , inter-bank short term financing becomes expensive and for some banks, their oxygen source was cut off and left to wither in the dried out land.

Where do we go from here? This is exactly the moment where the strong gets stronger and weak gets wiped off. Examples of Wells Fargo's bid for Wachovia and Eli Lilly's purchase of ImClone is a good example of well capitalised firm taking advantage of the credit crises.  Others firms like and Leucadia and Berkshire are also finally moving their huge pile of cash to some other uses. Can we identify these strong companies and capitalise on their strength? Are they available at not too high a price? Seek and i hope i'll find some more. 

Anyway on the topic of the Great Crash, my terrible driving skill finally materialized as a physical damage to my dad's car. It happened in a rather spacious carpark. While reversing into a parking lot, the front side of the car brushed against the rear bump of a van (that is OPPOSITE the lot i was reversing into). Haiz. My dad's hand was cold when he calmly told me to change over and he parked the car in. He didn't even scold me, and even managed to say something like 'study hard hor, can't be a taxi uncle next time'. WOW! the papa that explodes to things like me/my mom being 5 mins late has EVOLVED.

Think i must really find ways to be pretty rich before too long. If i can't drive my parents around next time, must at least get a trustworthy chauffeur to ferry them around. 

For me? i think i'll just have a deal with SMRT to have my private cabin so i can do my part in keeping mobile accident rate and blood pressure of other road users low.

The impersonal claim

I really like Jie Chao's post on Darth Vader. So i shall shamelessly quote from his blog here, haha.

Joseph Campbell: Darth Vader has not developed his own humanity. He's a robot. He's a bureacrat, living not in terms of himself but in terms of an imposed system. This is the threat to our lives that we all face today. Is the system going to flatten you out and deny you humanity, or are you going to be able to make use of the system to the attainment of human purposes? How do you relate to the system so that you are not compulsively serving it? 

On how to not lose our humanity: By holding to your own ideals for yourself and, like Luke Skywalker, rejecting the system's impersonal claims upon you.

(see full post here)

Looking at myself and those around me, i guess most of us are shaped by the world around us. The expectations of our parents, friends, loved ones, those of the institution (think getting high GPA = good job) and 'social norm' influenced us to make many decision that we would otherwise not make. 

I applaud Xin Hong's reply to his friend's qn on why doesn't he apply to "prestigious institution". He said that wants to work for a firm which live the principles that he agrees with and work for a person (a prof who taught a course in SMU) whom he admires. 

How refreshing! when he asked me if it made sense, i told him it totally does. My only caveat is that he must not be envious of others (whom i believe mostly less exceptional then him) who will earn way more than him (at least in the beginning). 

To see Chin Ta dance in the library was quite stunning at first, but now there's a bunch of his Caderas friends who'll dance with him in that corner in the library. Not distracting cuz they count their dance steps to silent beats, but very entertaining. He has essentially re-shaped the 'imposed system' in his idiosyncratic way. Btw, HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!! 

End of Mid-term exam week today. 'Buang' my MS exam today. Probably got 40 odd marks out of 100. Now my grades depend on my relative 'buangness' of my classmates. Dunno how to do well in a class where they can talk about gradients and coefficients and make much sense out of it. They are having a private conversation in class with the prof which i'm not part of. 

Yippee! Mid Term Break. Time to read my Buffett biography and sit around and do nothing (at least for a few days).

Once again, the same quote from a previous post:

The vulgar thus through imitation err;

As oft the learned, by being singular; 

So much they scorn the crowd, that if the throng

By chance go right, they purposely go wrong.

~Alexander Pope

3 mil dollar trip to Phuket

It has been a week since US Treasury proposed the bail out plan (version 1) to save the financial system. A professor of mine described the plan as similar to a student going to a vacation to Phuket and asking 3 mil bucks as travel allowance. When asked about how he's going the spend it, the student answers "i don't quite know how i'm going to use it, but let me reassure you that i'll be responsible about spending it".

Almost all commentators agree that the current condition is a crises of confidence, so taxpayer's money should be used to restore confidence, such that the financial crises does not flow from "Wallstreet to Mainstreet". However, there are huge disagreement to what's the best plan. 

George Soro, Nouriel Roubini, and the guys at FPA commented that the is fraught with dangers, such as the issue of moral hazard, the rationale behind socializing losses but not gains, and whether this plan is going to stem systemic risk. Underpinning their arguments, is a common theme that the market economy should be allowed to work, un-disciplined lender's equity should be wiped out and new players should emerge. Some suggested that a model could be Buffett's infusion of highly dilutive capital into Goldman (great for him, but dilutive for existing shareholders), or allowing companies such as WalMart and others with un-levered balance sheet to be granted banking license. 

In 10 years time, we will look back to these days as the days where over-levered institutions engulf in flames for their greed. We'll vow to never make the same mistakes again. But we'll surely find new ways to burn, for humans have an enormous relish for folly.

The Snowball

Warren Buffett's authorised biography written by Alice Schroeder will be out tmrw! The publishing house has posted a interview with the author on Youtube. At 976 pages, it details the personal side of Buffett, his insecurities, and mistakes in life. 

Financial Times posted an excerpt of the book here. For some reason, i couldn't view the full article the second time around without registering. Nevertheless, the first reading has piqued my interest enough to decide to 'reward' myself by reading this book for the rest of tuesday afternoon after my AFA quiz. Hope MPH will the the book in place tmrw.   

I've not felt this excited about a new book since Harry Potter! 

All righty, back to slaying the AFA and MS monster , before i can find peace and sit down and read interesting stuff again. 

I must find the middle path between incessant focus and balance.

The Tale of Icarus

Icarus, I advise you to take a middle course.

If you fly too low, the sea will soak the wings;

If you fly too high, the sun's heat will burn them.

Fly between sea and sun!

Take the course along which I shall lead you.

作中庸，乃孔伋。中不偏，庸不易。~ 三字经

 

Kla kla kla

Learning a new song at choir today - Pasigin. 

It's supposed to be about fishing, but due to the cluck cluck cluck sound we make while singing it, it sounds like we're a bunch of chicken. hahaha. 

Thanks Mark! for finding new songs and and new vocal warmups for us. Sometimes his philosophical musings while conducting is really chim! And i thought Jie Chao is the only chim one. And thanks to Nadia, we have music lessons every week. She's like superwoman, doing everything and taking care of everyone. having weekly quizzes from Nad is intense! haha. maybe that's why everyone's late today. Our alumni choir is really lucky to have all these amazing pple contributing to it. Despite all our busy schedule, weekly turn up has improved a lot. Chee Guan and gang must be doing something right!

Christabel gave me an envelope of 5 different sachets of tea today, with the following quote written on it;

Tea's proper use is to amuse the idle, and relax the studious, and dilute the full meals of those who cannot use exercise, and will not use abstinence. ~ Samual Johnson

How appropriate! Thanks for the tea!

A little learning

A little Learning is a dang'rous Thing;
Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian Spring:
There shallow Draughts intoxicate the Brain,
And drinking largely sobers us again.

[...]

The Vulgar thus through Imitation err;
As oft the Learn'd by being Singular;
So much they scorn the Crowd, that if the Throng
By Chance go right, they purposely go wrong; [...]

Alexander Pope, "An Essay on Criticism"

A cup of tea

MPH Raffles just called me and said that the release of the Warren Buffett book will be delayed by one day (next mon). All right then. I don't have much time to read anyway given that i'll have 2 mid terms/quizzes next week. That's super light compared to my peers. 

BTW, MPH selling the book (usual price $47.03) at discount of $36 nett if you pre-order before Sunday. GO GET IT!!!

Feeling sian these days cuz i can't help feeling that i'm really damn slow (and quite dumb for the matter). Doing a course called Management Science (MS) and i just can't figure out the mathematics and intuition behind the method used. Feels like math in J1 where i just dunno what's going on. Advance Financial Accounting is also very challenging for me. I was appalled yesterday that i don't understand throughly the journal entries to a simple intercompany inventory sales transaction. 

Worse still is that I've finally finished my second re-run of Friends on my ipod. Thanks to Ryan has painstaking converted ALL TEN SEASONS into ipod ready video. Haiz, no more crazy guy laughing in the train to a little white box.

Last night i did something that i regretted. In the midst of a brain-numbing experience while tackling my MS homework, i made degrading comments on a fellow schoolmate who talked to me while i'm "in the flow". Those words are totally uncalled for. Apologised. But i don't expect any forgiveness. I don't deserve it anyway, who wants to befriend a mean old man.

Watched half of "The Pursuit of Happyness" that Daniel recommended to me last year. I felt so sad halfway through that i stopped watching. Switched to 30 Rock. and Tina Fey lights up my day...or should i say night. The cast and crew of 30 Rock deserve all the recognition they got at this year's Emmy. Whoohoo. 

Drinking a cup of green tea...supposed to calm me down? so why am i feeling so restless?

Maybe i should try Eucalyptus tea next. 

A week of ups and down

Read this on Bloomberg today and found it very interesting that after a week of turmoil in the financial market, the general S&P index is mostly unchanged. Imagine if you did some panic selling of your unit trusts in the middle of the week, you would have suffered unnecessary losses. Stay the course. 

On the other hand, knowing that when pessimism is high, its the best time to buy if you have the fortitude to hold on. Yet few of us can do it.

No matter how much faculty of idle seeking a man has, the step from knowing to do doing is rarely taken.

~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

  

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S&P 500 Is Unchanged, Wall Street Forever Altered: Chart of Day 

By Nick Baker and Jeff Kearns

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks were little changed this week.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the swings in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index that left the equity benchmark up 0.3 percent since Sept. 12. That's the smallest weekly move for the S&P 500 in a month, even as it posted the biggest daily plunges in seven years and the steepest two-day surge since the aftermath of the October 1987 stock-market crash.

The index tumbled more than 4.7 percent twice after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy, Bank of America Corp.'s takeover of Merrill Lynch & Co. and the government seizure of American International Group Inc. The S&P 500 ended the week by jumping 8.5 percent in two days on the government's plan to purge banks of bad assets and crack down on short sellers.

``We moved around a lot to get nowhere,'' said Douglas Peta, a New York-based market strategist at J&W Seligman & Co., which manages about $20 billion. ``If you were away for a week and just came back and looked at the indexes, you'd say to the person next to you, `nothing happened while I was gone, huh?'''

The S&P 500 added 3.38 points to 1,255.08 this week.